| AN EMPIRICAL AGENT-BASED MODEL FOR RESIDENTIAL SEGREGATION, CASE STUDY: TEHRAN |
| Paper ID : 1133-GEOSPATIAL (R4) |
| Authors: |
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Nafiseh Mohammadi *1, Mohammad Saadi Mesgari2, Alex Klein-Paste3 1civil and environmental engineering, NTNU 2Department of Geo-Spatial Information System, Faculty of Geodesy and Geomatics, K.N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran 3Civil and environmental engineering, NTNU |
| Abstract: |
| Quantified description, analysis and prediction of urban dynamics as a complex system have been always challenging issues for urban scientists. The recent intensive development of multi-agent socio-economic simulations as a promising solution for that challenge, still lacks enough real-world examples. Our purpose in this research is to develop a spatially explicit model of residential segregation in urban space, which accounts for the infrastructure of a specific city and is aimed at comprehending and simulating its population dynamics. The agent-based simulation of the residential dynamics of Tehran in a period of 20 years- between 1996 and 2016- is based on the geo-statistical datasets of the Tehran Municipality and the Statistical Center of Iran. This is the first effort of presenting an agent-based model for Tehran segregation. We revise Schelling model trying to customize it to reach an acceptable fit to Tehran. In addition to Schelling parameters which are purely social factors, we have identified several important socio-economic and spatial-environmental criteria of Tehran segregation. They are categorized and weighed based on MCDM -specifically AHP- method. Some of them specifically belong to Tehran and are suggested for the first time. The study area is a district of 18 km2 in northwest Tehran. The model output would be the segregation pattern of the study area in year 2016. We discuss model verification and model calibration. We present a predicted future pattern of year 2030 and discuss result of the model based on current status of urban growth and urban infrastructures in the study area. We will validate our model based on efficient statistical methods. |
| Keywords: |
| Agent-Based Modeling, GIS, Segregation, Spatiotemporal Simulation, AHP |
| Status : Paper Accepted (Poster Presentation) |
